Andrew Mitton

My experience in Alaska and My Thoughts on Wordpress, Running, Cross Country Skiing, and Anything Else that Interests Me

Humans are Horrible Forecasters

This has been an excit­ing col­lege bas­ket­ball sea­son for me. I grad­u­ated from BYU and it’s been fun watch­ing Jim­mer and the Fre­dettes take the team to the sweet 16. Although it was painful to watch them lose against Florida. I’ll prob­a­bly have to wait another twenty plus year to see the team go this far again (the last time they went this far was back in 1983 with Danny Ainge). I picked BYU to go to the final four.

So how did you do with your picks. Prob­a­bly not too well. Don’t feel too bad. Over 5.9 mil­lion peo­ple filled out their brack­ets on ESPN.com. How many picked the final four cor­rectly? Two. Yep, that’s right only two peo­ple. NPR says:

If the 5.9 mil­lion entries in the ESPN.com chal­lenge chose their Final Four teams entirely at ran­dom and then just filled in each team’s path to that point how­ever they wanted, around 70 peo­ple would have picked this group of teams.

I find it inter­est­ing how much time we spend try­ing to pre­dict what’s going to hap­pen. Just think about how much time is spent in the media dis­cussing how things are going to turn out. Nobody knows. Not even the experts. Yet there I am read­ing the arti­cles. It’s fun, but a waste of time.

The ques­tion I have is why do we lis­ten to all the so called “experts” make fore­casts about the mar­ket, oil and gas prices, pol­i­tics, etc. It’s all just talk.